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In 2018, the number one recruit of high school was Trevor Lawrence (Justin Fields was number two). In 2019, Spencer Rattler was number one with Jayden Daniels at two Bo Nix three. In 2020, Bryce Young was number one and CJ Stroud was three. And in 2021, it was Quinn Ewers at the top with Caleb Williams at two. A 6’5”, 235-pound senior from Medina, Ohio named Drew Allar was the top dog in the 2022 recruiting class.
Following two years as the Penn State starting quarterback, Allar returns for one final season after considering the NFL last spring. I always say the final year on tape is the most influential ingredient to the process but we do have 29 career starts to observe and I can tell you this right now:
Drew Allar is going to be one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft class, if not the most.
One one side, you have a huge body with a huge arm that protects the ball well. He has a Josh Allen frame (not his athleticism) with a cannon and a 53:10 QB/INT ratio in addition to a 23-6 record. On the other, you have a guy that misses easy dump off throws to the flat as if he were throwing with the wrong hand and a losing record against ranked teams. The description “high ceiling / low floor” will be used by many as we approach the 2025 season but all of that can be erased if he steps up to the next level at a consistent rate. Similar to the Garrett Nussmeier initial report we shared in May, let’s look at where Allar stands in the key areas of scouting quarterbacks.
Anticipation throws: The one area of Allar’s game that keeps him out of a high-first round grade at the moment. Allar can make all the throws and he can even do it with defenders draped all over him (4th and 10 - 4th quarter touchdown pass vs Oregon in the Big Ten Championship last December). He can snap his wrist and put a closer’s velocity on it. But when looking at all his completions, it is hard to find balls where he throws receivers over the middle in the intermediate portion of the field.
Accuracy down the field: Allar’s numbers are not much worse (or better) than other top prospects when throwing the ball deep (20+ yards). He simply hasn’t done it much. He threw the ball deep just 36 times in 2023, 45 times in 2024. For comparison's sake, the last eight first round quarterbacks threw 20+ yards 117, 88, 84, 75, 66, 55, 51 and 45 times in their final seasons respectively (in less games). While that volume is not the end-all, we need to see him prove he can be a real weapon there because he does not show any sort of superpower in any other area. He actually tends to float the ball more than drive it and the ball will lose life toward the end and as seen in other areas of his attempt-tape, the accuracy is inconsistent.
Pocket Maneuverability: Allar is a quality athlete when he gets into space. The problem I see over and over is heavy, clunky footwork when he needs to evade pressure quickly. There is a lack of twitch to him that can close a lot of possibilities. He is young (21) and there is some of the baby deer-type awkward movement that can disappear as he matures into his massive frame, but Allar is never going to be one of the best athletes on the field. He can anticipate pressure well but he tends to panic and lose his sense of body control which has led to several errant throws. This is arguably the area I want to see the most improvement on because of the spillover to other problems in his game.
Toughness: The physical questions are plentiful but when it comes to toughness and competitive nature, Allar is all but signed-sealed-delivered. He plays through contact exceptionally well as both a rusher and passer. He does a nice job of avoiding contact when carrying the ball but if he needs to put that frame into a defender for a key first down or touchdown, there is no hesitation. Mentally, I do question how well he can handle pressure consistently. We have seen flashes and I think the toughness creates it, but the confidence wavers.
Without spoiling the Ourlads Preseason Top 32, I can say there was (and still is) debate whether or not he belongs in it. Yes, the value of the quarterback position helps him and has flashed more than enough ability. But the one thing that remains is the spectrum between his good and bad. It is as wide as any quarterback in the top ten (of the position) but there are undeniable traits that no other prospects have (at the position). If Allar can win the big ones and show just some improvement with his footwork and downfield passing, he is in the discussion for QB1 whether you like him or not.