Evaluating talent and projecting it to the NFL is a complex process. Each prospect gets hours and hours of attention. From preliminary research, to tape study, to interviews and discussions, to more tape study; the amount of thought and energy that goes into each one is part of the Ourlads passion behind scouting. There are no shortcuts.
With that said, some evaluations are just plain easy. After watching three games of Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, those are the two words at the top of my film notes: “Easy Evaluation”. The brother of Colts receiver Josh Downs, son of former NFL running back Gary Downs, and nephew of former NFL cornerback Dre Bly, Caleb played his freshman season for Nick Saban at Alabama. The five star recruit was a stud right away, earning All-SEC and All-American honors after being the first ever freshman in school history to lead the team in tackles (107) while adding a couple of interceptions.
Following Saban’s retirement, Downs transferred to the eventual National Champions Ohio State where he, to nobody’s surprise, earned unanimous First Team All-American honors in addition to winning the Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year Award. In addition to his stellar defensive play, he returned a punt for a touchdown which was the first one by a buckeye in a decade. Simply put, Downs is an elite football player who will end up grading at or near the top of the class when all is said and done. Let’s take a look at the key traits a safety must have and where Downs stacks up respectively within those traits,
Size/Speed: Downs measures in at 6’0” / 205. The average safety in the NFL measures in at 6’1” / 207. His timed athleticism will not matter much but I expect him to test faster than the average (4.55 forty / 7.0 three-cone) by a comfortable margin. His play speed and workouts will both be at or near the top of the safety class overall. He physically compares to Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Instincts/Reaction: This can be a difficult trait to truly quantify without knowing all of the ins and out of the Ohio State defensive rules schematically. One thing I can see in essentially every tape I’ve seen to this point is how fast he pounces on the action. A part of that is the physical speed noted above but the fact that trigger is on display so often feeds the notion he knows exactly what he is seeing. Add in what coaches from both programs who demand a lot from the safety position say and a lack of mistakes gets him a high mark in this area for now.
Tackling/Physicality: Downs can hit like a linebacker. Some of his run defense tape reminds me of Jamal Adams, a guy that can play in the box without hesitation. He also looks like he belongs when matched up against tight ends even against someone like Tyler Warren. He is a tackling machine with an average miss-rate (right around 10%). His ability to break down in space and get the ball carrier down on an island is a key trait for the final line of defense. Downs is equally effective against both speed and power that brings a blend of violence and technique.
Versatility: Downs is not targeted much, just about twice per game on average a year ago. Whether it is quarterbacks being afraid to throw his way or it being the luck of the draw, his four interceptions and ten pass break ups over two seasons is an above average rate considering how little he gets targeted. In addition, he is already in double digit tackles for loss over his career with a punt return touchdown to his name. He has lined up a near identical amount deep versus in the box with over 400 snaps at nickel. Downs can play any role a safety needs to be ready for at the next level.
Downs does not play a premium position or even a spot teams are willing to take early. The first safety in 2025 was taken at 27 overall. In 2024, 47th. In 2023, 45th. In 2022, 14th. In fact, that 14th overall pick (Kyle Hamilton), was the highest a safety had been selected since Fitzpatrick in 2018. While the position can tend to be overlooked early in drafts, Downs is simply different. This is a top ten pick that could come off the board in the top five.